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SPX at 4144
I’m going to put on a broken wing put butterfly with 46 days until expiration.
I’m selling the 4000 put (around 35 delta) and I’m buying a put 50 points below and 45 points above the short put.
This trade will have a planned capital of 10k.
A 10 lot will require around 5100-5200.
My goal is to make around 10% ROR and I will stop out of the trade IF/WHEN down 15%.
Risk Profile:
Order Ticket:
SPX at 3891
I’m going to roll 1/2 position of the 4000 put down 10 points
Order Ticket:
Risk Profile:
SPX at 3946
I’m going to roll 4000 put down to 3990 again (the other 1/2 position)
Order Ticket:
SPX at 3981
I’m going to balance this butterfly by rolling 3950 put down to 3935 for a credit.
This leaves me with a balanced put butterfly and my BP tied up in this trade is 1/2 of my planned capital for it.
Risk Profile:
Order Ticket:
SPX at 4065
The price is starting to move outside of the tent and I’m going to roll the upper long puts down 10 points.
This adjustment is going to reduce risk on the upside and increase risk on the downside (below lower long puts).
Risk Profile:
Order Ticket:
SPX at 3937
I’m going to roll up the lower long put up 15 points
Order Ticket:
Risk Profile:
SPX at 3972
I’m going to roll the short 3990/3950 put spread down to 3950/3905 for a small debit.
This adjustment is going to make both, upside and downside about equal and my BPR is still within the 10k planned risk.
Risk Profile:
Order Ticket:
SPX at 4031
With SPX moving outside of the profit tent, I’m going to pinch in the wings by rolling long puts in 15 points.
This is how this adjustment is going to change the risk profile:
This adjustment is going to reduce overall risk in this trade and I will look to use calendar spreads to manage this trade from here.
Order Ticket:
If SPX continues higher, I will use OTM call calendars to manage this trade.
Here’s an example of buying 17JUN/21JUN 4100 call calendar and this is how it’ll change the risk profile:
Notice that my BRP is within the 10k planned risk and now I’m opening up a potential profit area around 4100.
This trade has 22 days to go and now I will need to be a little more active with this trade.
SPX at 4123
I’m going to pick up (8) OTM call calendars as discussed above.
The center of this calendar is at 4150 strike.
Order Ticket:
Risk Profile:
SPX at 4152
I’m going to close 1/2 position in 3920/3950/3990/4020 put condor.
This will leave me with 1/2 position of the put condor and 8 call calendars at 4150 strike
Risk Profile:
Order Ticket:
SPX at 3942
I’m going to make one more (and probably last) adjustment as this trade is going to expire next week.
I’m going to roll the long 3920 put from 17JUN to 21JUN strike for a debit.
My stop out in this trade IF/WHEN SPX breaks below 3870
SPX at 3923
The vol has spiked and now the market is emotional once again, after 2 weeks of movement within 100 point range.
This trade is expiring next week. I dont know if we’re going to see ‘non movement’ before then, but my goal right now is to cut my DELTA as close to flat as possible.
Currently my position delta is about +24
I’m going to roll the short 3950 put down 20 points and this will cut my delta to about -1.84
This is the same as buying a 3950/3930 put debit spread.
SPX at 3785
This trade has clearly gotten away from me and now I’m playing catch up with BP allocated.
It is best to stop out out of this trade unless taking a bit more heat is accepted.
I’m going to pick up an OTM put in the 21JUN expiry to flatten out the delta and see where the market moves in the next day or two.
This trade will require more ASS IN THE CHAIR time as we approach expiration (soft landing according to the FED, right?)
Order Ticket:
Here’s updated Risk Profile:
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